Lyon and Marseille will meet on Saturday in round 10 of the French Women’s Championship.

Lyon have been prolific lately, recording three wins and two draws, with four of those matches producing three or more goals. Marseille also collect points, yet their defence has been leaky—four of their last five games saw at least two goals conceded.

Bookmakers price the over 4.5 goals line at roughly 60 %. Lyon average 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match; Marseille average 2.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. Both sides frequently surpass 2.5 goals, so the probability of over 4.5 is estimated at 58 %.

Odds imply an overwhelming home edge: 1.00 on Lyon versus 55.00 on Marseille. Factoring in home form and the gap in quality, Lyon’s win probability is 88 %, a draw 9 %, and an away win 3 %.