Gol Gohar will host Aluminium in the Iran Pro League

Gol Gohar collected 7 points from the last five matches, keeping three clean sheets and conceding only one goal. Aluminium earned 6 points over the same period, drawing three times and conceding seven goals.

Bookmakers price the probability of over 1.5 goals at 60 % and under 1.5 at 40 %. Gol Gohar average 1.2 goals per game recently, Aluminium 1.4. Given that three of the last five head-to-head matches stayed under 2.5 goals, the chance of over 1.5 goals is estimated at 53 % and under at 47 %.

Odds of 2.01-2.94-4.12 translate into implied probabilities of 50 %-34 %-24 %. Factoring in home advantage and Gol Gohar’s solid defence, the adjusted probabilities are 48 % for a home win, 33 % for a draw and 19 % for an away win.