2 de Mayo vs Recoleta in the Paraguayan Primera División

2 de Mayo’s last five outings include two heavy defeats (0-4, 0-3), one draw (2-2) and only one win. Recoleta have kept three clean sheets in five matches and look marginally more solid despite conceding in four.

Bookmakers price the over 2.5 goals line at 48 % and the under at 59 %. Given that 2 de Mayo have conceded 12 goals in five games and Recoleta average just over one goal scored, the true chance of over 2.5 is closer to 44 %.

The implied probabilities are 44 % home win, 30 % draw, 33 % away win. Adjusting for 2 de Mayo’s blunt attack and Recoleta’s steadier defence, realistic chances shift to 38 % home, 32 % draw, 30 % away.