Instituto will host Deportivo Riestra in the Argentine Primera División.

Instituto collected ten points from the last five fixtures, winning three, drawing one and losing one, while conceding six goals. Deportivo Riestra earned only four points, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring no more than one goal per game.

The bookmaker’s line on total 1.5 goals prices the over at 61 % and the under at 39 %. Instituto average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match; Riestra average 0.6 scored and 1.0 conceded. The most likely outcome is under 1.5 goals (55 %).

Odds 1.94 / 3.08 / 4.7 translate into implied probabilities of 51 % / 32 % / 21 %. Factoring in home advantage and Instituto’s stronger recent form, the adjusted probabilities are 48 % home win, 35 % draw and 17 % away win.