In the English League Cup women’s tie, Southampton edged Leicester City 1-0 at home. The only goal came in the very first minute, and the hosts held on to their slender lead until the final whistle. Despite having less possession (46 % vs 54 %), Southampton were the more dangerous side, launching 76 dangerous attacks compared with 56 from the visitors. They were also awarded a penalty that proved decisive. Leicester created more set-piece opportunities (6 corners to 4), but lacked the finishing touch needed to equalise.

The average goals per game for both teams in their last five matches is around 4.0, and bookmakers offer 2.22 on over 3.5, indicating a 45% chance of a high-scoring encounter.

With odds at 2.15-3.6-2.74, Southampton’s win probability is estimated at 46%, a draw at 28%, and Leicester City’s victory at 26%.