Hammarby vs Djurgården in the Swedish Women’s Championship

Hammarby arrive in strong form: four wins in the last five games, including clean-sheet victories over Eskilstuna and Rangers. Djurgården also have four wins, but against considerably weaker sides.

The 3.5-goal line implies a 51 % chance of over and 58 % of under. Hammarby average 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, Djurgården 2.8 and 1.4. These numbers suggest a slight lean toward four or five total goals.

Odds of 1.17 on Hammarby correspond to an 80–82 % probability of home win, 13–14 % for a draw, and about 8 % for an away win. Given Hammarby’s home record and the gap in quality, their edge looks substantial.