Sarrabus Ogliastra host Gelbison Cilento in matchday 24 of Italy’s Serie D.

Sarrabus have earned four points from their last five matches, drawing twice and losing three. Gelbison look steadier with three wins, two losses and an 8-8 goal record.

Sarrabus average 0.8 goals per game, Gelbison 2.0. Odds 1.90 / 1.80 on the 2.5 line show balanced bookmaker interest. Given the hosts’ leaky defence, the chance of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 52%.

Bookmakers price Gelbison’s win at 2.44, slightly shorter than Sarrabus at 2.75. With two victories in head-to-heads and better recent form, Gelbison’s win probability sits at 41%, Sarrabus 33%, draw 26%.