Cremonese host Juve Stabia in matchday 28 of Italy’s Serie B

Cremonese collected seven points from the last five fixtures, remaining unbeaten in four. Their back line conceded only one goal in four of those games. Juve Stabia earned eight points over the same span and stayed undefeated three times, yet on the road against Serie B sides they concede 1.6 goals per match on average.

Bookmaker odds imply a 53 % chance of over 2.5 goals and 47 % for under. Cremonese average 1.6 goals per game in their last five outings, Juve Stabia 2.0. Blending these figures yields an estimated probability of 51 % for over 2.5 goals and 49 % for under.

Odds of 1.8-3.54-4.31 translate to 56 % home win probability, 28 % draw and 23 % away win. Adjusting for Cremonese’s home advantage and stronger record against mid-table opponents, the adjusted chances are 52 % home win, 30 % draw and 18 % away win.