Cerro Largo host Boston River in the Uruguayan Primera División

Cerro Largo collected four points from their last five games, drawing with Cerro and beating only Atlético Rentistas. Boston River have been more consistent, recording three wins, one draw and one defeat, keeping clean sheets in four of those matches.

Bookmakers price the probability of over 2.5 goals at 45 % with odds of 2.22, while under 2.5 is offered at 1.56. Given Cerro Largo’s average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, and Boston River’s 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded over the last five fixtures, the chance of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 43 %.

The implied probabilities stand at 38 % for a Cerro Largo win, 34 % for a draw and 39 % for a Boston River win. Factoring in the odds and recent scoring patterns, the estimated likelihoods are 37 % for Cerro Largo, 33 % for a draw and 30 % for Boston River.