Atletico Junior delivered a convincing 3-0 win over Atletico Nacional Medellin in the Colombian Primera A. Two goals in the first half set the tone, and a second-half penalty sealed the result. Despite having only 44 % possession compared to 56 %, Junior earned more corners (6-3) and collected fewer yellow cards (3-5).

Bookmaker odds imply roughly 61 % probability for over 2 goals. The sides average 5.2 goals per game in their last five matches. Nacional score 2.8 goals on average while Junior concede 1.6, giving an estimated 58-62 % chance for over 2 goals.

The 2.88-2.98-2.88 line suggests near parity. Junior’s win probability is assessed at 33 %, Nacional’s at 34 % and the draw at 33 %. In the last five head-to-heads Junior won three, Nacional one and there was one draw, confirming balanced forces.