Vantaa will host TPV in the Finnish Ykkönen 1st Division

Vantaa’s recent form shows inconsistency: one win, two draws and two defeats in the last five matches. TPV’s record is similarly uneven, with two draws and three losses.

Bookmakers price the over 3.5 goals line at roughly 52-53 % probability. Vantaa’s matches have averaged about 3.4 goals lately, TPV’s around 3.0. Based on these numbers the chance of over 3.5 goals is estimated at 48 %, under 3.5 at 52 %.

Odds of 1.37-4.97-7.33 translate into implied probabilities of 73 % for a Vantaa win, 20 % for a draw and 14 % for TPV. Adjusting for home advantage and recent H2H data yields 68 % for the hosts, 22 % for a draw and 10 % for the visitors.