On 3 June 2026 in the Maurice Revello Tournament, Japan lost 1-4 to Portugal. The visitors took a 2-0 lead by half-time and added two more goals after the break. Portugal dominated possession with 63 % compared to 37 % for Japan and converted a penalty. Although Japan earned more corners (9-7), Portugal looked far more clinical in attack and secured a convincing win.

With the line set at 3.5, the bookmaker prices Over at 48.5 % and Under at 56.5 %. Given Japan’s average of 1.8 goals and Portugal’s 1.6, the probability of Over 3.5 is estimated at 43 %.

Odds 5.7-4.56-1.48 translate to implied probabilities of 17.5-22-67.5 %. Factoring in recent form and ranking gap, Portugal’s win chance is assessed at 62 %, Japan’s at 21 % and the draw at 17 %.